Negative Interest Rates: How Did This Happen?…
Until recently, negative interest rates were considered inconceivable. Now, however, $7 trillion worth of bonds are trading at negative yields. That means the owners of those bonds are guaranteed to
Death Spiral? Make That Plural
Last week Citi made headlines by publishing a report claiming the global economy is trapped in a “Death Spiral”. The timing of the report was perfect. Financial markets were in
Negative Liquidity Will Drive Stocks Lower
Liquidity in the United States turned negative in the fourth quarter of 2015. I believe this played an important role in the severe stock market selloff that began around that
How My Career Shaped My Views On The Global E…
In the new Macro Watch video uploaded today, I describe how my 30-year career in the investment industry has shaped my views on what drives the global economy and the
Weak Credit Growth Signals Recession Ahead
Between 1952 and 2008, every time US credit growth (adjusted for inflation) fell below 2%, the United States went into recession. During that period, the ratio of total credit to
Rate Hike: Trouble Ahead
On December 16th, the Fed hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. The world did not come to an end, but there is clearly trouble ahead.
American Meltdown: The Crisis Of 2008
In 2008 the American Financial System failed. In this video, uploaded today, we take a look back at the systemic meltdown of the US financial sector and at the crisis
Interview: Austrian Economics Would Destroy T…
I could have used many different headlines to announce this interview (which was conducted by Cris Sheridan for the outstanding financial website, Financial Sense). I could have used: “Pray For
Asia & The Slump In World Trade
Asia is being hit hard by the slump in world trade that has resulted from the sharp economic slowdown in China. In the latest Macro Watch video, uploaded today, we
Interview: Yuan Devaluation Likely
An Interview published in Hankook Ilbo I have just returned from speaking at The Third China Forum in Seoul, an event hosted by the Korean conglomerate Hankook Ilbo. The theme