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The Liquidity Tsunami Is About To End Abruptly

On March 6th this year, Macro Watch published a video called “Liquidity Tsunami May Drive Asset Prices Much Higher”.  It argued that during the months ahead Bank Reserves would surge, and that the related Liquidity surge would drive asset prices much higher.  That has been a recurring Macro Watch theme since then. Since March 6th, the S&P…
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Slowing Inflation Won’t Stop Fed Tapering

Inflation in the United States slowed sharply during August.  The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month in August.  That was down from 0.9% in April, 0.7% in May, 0.9% in June, and 0.3% in July. Since the year 2000, the average monthly increase in Core CPI has been 0.2%.  So, last month’s reading of…
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The Fed Has A Big Problem

On Friday, the jobs report showed that only 235,000 new jobs were created in the United States during August. That was well below expectations of 728,000 new jobs. Up until then, the Fed appeared inclined to begin Tapering Quantitative Easing sooner and perhaps at a faster pace than it had indicated earlier. The odds seemed to be increasing that the…
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Interview: Inflation or Deflation?

Cris Sheridan recently interviewed me for the Financial Sense Newshour.  It was another good conversation.  I hope you will listen to it now. We discussed: Fed tapering of Quantitative Easing is on the horizon.  What impact will tapering have on asset prices. Why the United States is past peak Credit Growth and, therefore, past peak Economic Growth and…
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