October 15, 2021

Stormy Weather Ahead

Credit growth is slowing rapidly in the United States.  That is alarming because in the Twenty-first Century, Credit Growth Drives Economy Growth.   Total Credit Growth (adjusted for inflation) slowed from 9.3% (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 6.9% in the first quarter of this year and to just 0.9% in the second quarter. The…
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October 8, 2021

Interview: Economic Crises

I recently had a very interesting conversation with Kirk Chisholm for The Money Tree Investing Podcast. This interview provides a history of economic crises in the United States from 1914 to the present – their causes, how the government responded to them, their consequences, the lessons learned from them and what that all means for…
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September 18, 2021

Slowing Inflation Won’t Stop Fed Tapering

Inflation in the United States slowed sharply during August.  The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month in August.  That was down from 0.9% in April, 0.7% in May, 0.9% in June, and 0.3% in July. Since the year 2000, the average monthly increase in Core CPI has been 0.2%.  So, last month’s reading of…
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September 4, 2021

The Fed Has A Big Problem

On Friday, the jobs report showed that only 235,000 new jobs were created in the United States during August. That was well below expectations of 728,000 new jobs. Up until then, the Fed appeared inclined to begin Tapering Quantitative Easing sooner and perhaps at a faster pace than it had indicated earlier. The odds seemed to be increasing that the…
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August 27, 2021

Interview: Inflation or Deflation?

Cris Sheridan recently interviewed me for the Financial Sense Newshour.  It was another good conversation.  I hope you will listen to it now. We discussed: Fed tapering of Quantitative Easing is on the horizon.  What impact will tapering have on asset prices. Why the United States is past peak Credit Growth and, therefore, past peak Economic Growth and…
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August 20, 2021

The Fed Is More Profitable Than Apple

The Fed is enormously profitable.  In fact, if it were a corporation, the Fed would have been the most profitable corporation in the world last year.  Luckily for American taxpayers, the Fed must hand over all its profits to the US Government. The Fed gave the Treasury Department $87 billion last year.  Apple, which was the most profitable…
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August 1, 2021

The Investor’s Podcast Interview: 2021

The Implications of Peak Inflation I was recently interviewed by Trey Lockerbie for The Investor’s Podcast.  This was an excellent conversation that covers not only the topics that investors are most concerned about today but also the broader policy implications of the extraordinary economic environment in which we find ourselves. Please listen to this interview.  I highly…
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July 23, 2021

Lessons From Comparing The Four Largest Central Banks

There is a great deal of concern in the United States regarding the large amount of money the Fed is creating through Quantitative Easing, currently $120 billion per month. Some fear this will result in persistently high rates of inflation.  Others believe it will cause the Dollar to collapse. The new Macro Watch video puts the potential consequences…
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July 9, 2021

Credit, Economic Growth and Inflation To Slow

Credit growth in the United States has peaked.  Since Credit Growth drives Economic Growth, that means economic growth has also peaked.  This strongly suggests that Inflation will soon begin to slow.  This explains why Gold, Commodity Prices and Bond Yields are falling. The new Macro Watch video discusses Credit Growth in the United States up through the first quarter.  It also presents estimates…
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June 24, 2021

Peak Growth = Peak Inflation?

The message from the Fed’s June 16th FOMC meeting was slightly more hawkish than the market had expected.  It indicated that the first rate hike may come at the end of 2023 instead of in 2024, as previously suggested. This relatively minor change in tone was enough to cause a major reevaluation regarding the outlook for…
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June 11, 2021

The Fed Is Preventing Negative Interest Rates Using Reverse Repos

Reverse Repurchase Agreements on the Fed’s balance sheet have surged from $0 in mid-March to $535 billion on June 10th. Many people have begun to ask if the suddenness of this development portends a new crisis in the financial markets. It doesn’t. The latest Macro Watch video explains what Reverse Repurchase Agreements are and why…
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May 28, 2021

When The Fed Tapers QE, Will Asset Prices Crash?

The Fed is now signaling that it will soon begin to discuss when to Taper Quantitative Easing. This is an important policy development that could significantly impact asset prices during the weeks ahead. The new Macro Watch video examines what happened to asset prices the last time the Fed Tapered QE, in order to anticipate…
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May 15, 2021

Will Gold Crash Again?

There are now reasons for concern that Gold could soon experience another serious correction as it did following its peaks in 1975, 1980 and 2011 when its price fell 45%, 62% and 42%, respectively. First, the Fed is very likely to taper Quantitative Easing next year.  When it does, if not before, the price of Gold…
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May 13, 2021

Interview: Inflation, Liquidity and MMT

I was recently interviewed by Andy Tanner for the Cashflow Academy podcast. Whenever I speak with Andy, I always end up feeling smarter and happier.  It’s impossible not to be inspired by his enthusiasm for learning and teaching.  I believe you will enjoy this conversation as much as I did. Topics include: Why doing fundamental analysis on…
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May 7, 2021

Interview on Rich Dad Radio

I recently had a great conversation with my friends Robert and Kim Kiyosaki for Rich Dad Radio.  So far, this interview has been viewed nearly 250,000 times on YouTube alone.   Bestselling authors, entrepreneurs, educators and genuinely nice people, with a devoted, world-wide following numbering in the tens of millions, Robert and Kim need no introduction.  Here…
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April 23, 2021

Speech: How Capitalism Died & Where That Leave Us

PLEASE NOTE: The link to the speech did not work when this blog was posted. It has been fixed. Apologies for the inconvenience. RD Capitalism did not die overnight.  It took two World Wars and then some to kill it.  But it’s dead now.  If you still believe that our economy is driven by laissez-faire “market forces”, then…
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April 20, 2021

How To Learn The Most From Macro Watch

The latest Macro Watch video explains to new (and existing) subscribers what they should do and the steps they should take to learn the most from Macro Watch: Subscribe to the free Macro Watch blog. Watch the introductory Courses. Find videos using the Video Index tab. Watch the speech: “How The Economy And The Financial…
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