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Richard Duncan forecast the global economic crisis with extraordinary accuracy in his book, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005). He wrote:
“In short, the world economy is in a state of extreme disequilibrium and at risk of plunging into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression”
“If history is any guide, the United States is very likely to be hit by a systemic crisis in the financial sector.”
“It is not certain when the property boom will cease, but it is certain that it will cease. The longer it goes on, the more the economy will suffer when it does end.”
“It would not be surprising to see the US budget deficit surpass US$1 trillion by 2007 or 2008 if the US current account has come down significantly by that time.”
Consequently, very few speakers are better qualified to explain this worldwide calamity than Duncan.
The Global Economy in Crisis
The Past: The causes of the crisis explained.
- When US policymakers abandoned the core principles of economic orthodoxy, balanced government budgets and sound money, the stage was set.
- The United States trade deficits are the origin of the global imbalances that destabilized the world economy.
- Paper money creation by central banks financed the global imbalances and fuelled a worldwide credit bubble.
- The New Depression began when that credit could not be repaid.
The Present: On the brink of disaster.
- The world economy on government life-support.
- The outlook for the US private sector.
- The outlook for the rest of the world.
- The outlook for the US government sector.
- Why America doesn’t work.
The Future: Ruin or Rejuvenation
- Scenario one: poor policies, disastrous consequences.
- Scenario two: Restructuring America, rebalancing the global economy, restoring sustainable growth.
- Policy tools for the 21st Century.
- Probable outcomes.
- Investment implications: stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies.