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Balancing on the Edge: Critical Factors Impacting Markets in 2024

  1. The very high Wealth To Income Ratio in the United States,
  2. The lingering effects of the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus since 2020,
  3. Quantitative Tightening,
  4. The approaching Fed Rate Cuts,
  5. The Yen Carry Trade, and
  6. The impact of protectionism on interest rates.

Inflated asset prices, QT, the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade, and the threat of protectionism have negative implications.

Fed rate cuts should be beneficial – although they could spark another selloff if they force investors out of the Yen Carry Trade.

The lingering effect of Covid-related stimulus should continue to be positive, but, even here, QT is steadily reversing the stimulus on the monetary side.

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