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March 6, 2021

Liquidity Tsunami May Drive Asset Prices Much Higher

A Tidal Wave of Liquidity may soon be injected into the Financial System.  If it is, asset prices could rocket higher. The Treasury Department estimates that it will run down the funds in its bank account at the Fed from $1.44 trillion on February 24th to $500 billion on June 30th.  If it does, that will inject $940…
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February 28, 2021

Will Bond Yields Spike and Crush The Markets?

A rout in the bond market last week sent government bond yields sharply higher and the price of a broad range of speculative assets painfully lower.  For instance, Tesla lost nearly 12%.  Even the price of Gold fell as low as $1,715 an ounce on Friday. If bond yields continue shooting up this week, the stock market…
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February 20, 2021

Inflation Won’t Force The Fed To Tighten in 2021

Monetary Policy in the United States is extraordinarily loose.  The Federal Funds Rate is very close to 0% and the Fed is creating $120 billion a month through Quantitative Easing.  This extremely loose Monetary Policy is very supportive for asset prices, which are moving up across the board. Moreover, the US economic outlook for 2021 appears bright.  With…
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February 7, 2021

What’s Driving Tech Stocks: Liquidity, Fundamentals or Both?

Two years ago, Macro Watch made a three-part series on the six largest US Tech Giants, ranked by the size of their spending on Research and Development: Amazon, Alphabet, Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook. Those videos were called “The Tech Giants: Parts One and Two”, and “Alphabet’s Other Bets”.  They focused on those companies’ businesses and products.  …
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January 16, 2021

Stimulus, Inflation, Stocks and Gold: What’s Ahead?

A $900 billion stimulus bill was passed by Congress in December.  President-elect Biden has just proposed a new $1.9 trillion Covid relief package.  Moreover, with the Democrats soon to be in charge of Congress, much more government investment in infrastructure and R&D is expected for this year and next. Will so much additional government spending cause significantly…
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January 2, 2021

Credit: A Year Like No Other

The latest Macro Watch video looks at some of the extraordinary developments in US credit and wealth during the first three quarters of 2020. It also considers what these developments have to teach us about how the outcome of the January 5th Senate races in Georgia could impact the economy, jobs and asset prices. Here…
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December 22, 2020

Big Stimulus Rally Ahead for Stocks and Gold?

An $892 billion stimulus bill was passed by Congress last night.  It is likely to push the price of stocks, gold and other asset classes higher.  The new Macro Watch video explains why. Macro Watch subscribers can log in and watch this video now.  It is 7 minutes long and contains 22 slides that can be downloaded. If you…
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December 17, 2020

Why China’s Winning

China’s economy is on track to overtake the United States economy as the largest in the world in less than eight years, if current trends continue. In 1990, the US economy was 15 times larger than China’s economy.  Last year, it was 50% larger.  By 2030, it looks likely to be 10% smaller.  The latest Macro Watch video…
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November 27, 2020

What The US Must Learn From Japan

The new Macro Watch video compares the Japanese economic policy response to Covid-19 with that of the United States – in terms of its impact on government debt, central bank balance sheets, the Money Supply, interest rates and inflation. The video shows that: Japan’s fiscal and monetary policy response to the pandemic has been considerably less…
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November 23, 2020

The Euro vs. The Dollar

Since the Covid-19 pandemic began, Macro Watch has focused primarily on the economic policy response to the crisis in the United States.  The new Macro Watch video looks at how the policy response in Europe compares with that of the US – in terms of its impact on government debt, central bank balance sheets, the Money…
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November 13, 2020

New Interview: Highly Recommended

I was recently interviewed by Jim Baer for his podcast The Puck: Venture Capital and Beyond.  Jim, who works in the world of venture capital and technology, raised many important questions about the dramatic changes occurring in the way the economy works today, as well as the unsettling social and geopolitical consequences those changes are bringing about.  …
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October 30, 2020

Stimulus and Your Wealth

Household Wealth plunged by a record-breaking $7.2 trillion during the first quarter of 2020.  It then recovered all of that and more, $7.6 trillion, during the second quarter.  Covid and the lockdowns were responsible for the crash.  The Policy Response was responsible for the extraordinary bounce back. The new Macro Watch video shows how the policy response to…
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October 24, 2020

Understand Money

Monetary Policy is the US government’s most powerful economic policy tool. The Fed is currently creating $120 billion a month and pumping it into the financial markets. That explains why stock prices are so high and why interest rates are so low. Do you understand how Monetary Policy works? Watch these nine Macro Watch videos…
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October 16, 2020

Bank Reserves Are Irrelevant. QE Works!

Many people believe that when the Fed creates money through Quantitative Easing, that that money simply gets stuck in the banks as Bank Reserves and does nothing to help the economy. That idea is incorrect. The money the Fed creates is injected into the economy and stimulates economic growth.  The latest Macro Watch video clearly demonstrates…
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October 3, 2020

Dire Consequences Without New Stimulus

If Congress fails to pass a new economic rescue bill soon, the United States is likely to experience a new severe economic downturn that could bankrupt the US financial sector and destroy millions of additional jobs. The latest Macro Watch video shows how government fiscal support held the economy together during the first half of…
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September 26, 2020

The Velocity Of Money Is Irrelevant

Although the subject of the new Macro Watch video is the irrelevance of Velocity in the 21stCentury, the video begins with a brief comment on a more urgent matter, recent developments in the financial market.  It is clear that the recent selloff in the stock market and in the price of gold have resulted from the…
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September 11, 2020

Trillions At Stake In Upcoming FOMC

A lot is riding on the Fed’s FOMC meeting next week.  One misstep could send asset prices crashing. The new Macro Watch video discusses the factors that make this FOMC meeting so much more important than most, including: The recent revisions to the Fed’s Strategy Statement Very high stock market valuations The failure of Congress to…
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September 6, 2020

Interview: Melt Up or Melt Down?

I was recently interviewed by Cris Sheridan for Financial Sense Newshour. This was a succinct conversation that addressed many of the issues that most concern investors and the general public today: What are the factors that will determine whether stocks continue to soar or crash? What are the implications for the economy and the financial…
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August 26, 2020

Interview: Did Greenspan Lie To Me?

In January 2017, Bill Bonner, founder of Agora Financial, organized a roundtable discussion with Alan Greenspan in the hot seat.  I was one of a dozen participants invited to ask Chairman Greenspan a question at this Agora Research event.  Vern Gowdie was another. I was recently interviewed by Vern for his Gowdie Advisory Podcast.  (Find the link to…
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August 22, 2020

The Biden Plan For R&D

Joe Biden has announced a plan for the government to invest $300 billion in Research and Development over the next four years if he becomes president. The concept is right.  The scale is wrong. The US government will have to invest far more than $300 billion if it is going to retain its global preeminence and ensure…
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