Blog

February 3, 2019

The Fed’s Historic Policy Shift

The Fed’s January 30th FOMC meeting produced one of the most consequential shifts in Monetary Policy that I can recall.  Rate hikes were put on hold.  Quantitative Tightening is to be ended much sooner than was expected.  And, a “Fundamental Decision” was made to change the way the Fed manages interest rates. This was an extraordinary and abrupt…
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January 15, 2019

R&D: The Future Depends On It

Investment in Research and Development (R&D) today will be a decisive factor in determining which companies and which countries dominate the future. The new Macro Watch video provides an overview of R&D in the United States. The video describes the kind of R&D currently being conducted, who is carrying it out and who is paying…
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January 3, 2019

Podcast: Our Once In History Opportunity

The global economy may well collapse into a new Great Depression.  But if it does, it will be due to policy mistakes, not because of some preordained “laws” set down by 19thCentury economists.   I recently spoke with Dr. Buck Joffrey, the host of the Wealth Formula Podcast.  We discussed the challenges facing the global economy in 2019…
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December 21, 2018

The Yield Curve Is Sending You A Warning

The inversion of the yield curve is considered to be one of the most accurate predictors of recessions.  It has inverted before every US recession since World War II.  It is very close to inverting again now.  Yesterday the yield on the 10-Year US government bond was only 9 basis points higher than the yield…
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December 13, 2018

Who Will Be Hurt By The US-China Trade War?

Tensions between the United States and China intensified last week when the CFO of one of China’s largest tech companies was arrested in Canada at the request of the United States.  Therefore, even though President Trump has pushed back his threat to increase tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports from January 1st to…
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December 5, 2018

A Particularly Good Interview

I recently had a particularly interesting conversation with Hunter Thompson, the host of the Cash Flow Connections Podcast.  I highly recommend it.   Please find the link to the podcast below. Topic discussed include: The Fed’s current extreme monetary policy tightening. A detailed explanation of how the Fed is now literally destroying $50 billion per…
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November 29, 2018

Investing In America

One of the most important things to understand about economics is that CAPITAL GROWS.  The Capital Stock of the United States increased 60-fold between 1952 and 2017, from $1 trillion to $60 trillion.  Not only does Capital grow, it evolves and becomes more complex.  As it does, it transforms the way people live and the…
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November 7, 2018

The Capital Structure Of The United States

Capital, when combined with labor and natural resources, generates income.  If that income is saved and invested, it generates more income. Therefore, it is important to understand a country’s Capital Stock because that, to a considerable extent, will determine that country’s potential to generate Income and Economic Growth in the future. The new Macro Watch Video…
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October 23, 2018

The Rich Dad Radio Show Interview With Robert Kiyosaki

I recently spoke with Robert Kiyosaki for the Rich Dad Radio Show about the danger that the US – China Trade War may soon become a new Cold War. In just over two months from now, President Trump intends to increase the US trade tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. …
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October 18, 2018

A Concise History Of Creditism

2018 marks the Golden Anniversary of Paper Money.  On March 19, 1968, President Johnson signed Public Law 90-269 which ended the requirement that the Federal Reserve hold Gold to back the Money it creates.  Afterwards, the Fed was free to create as much money as it dared.  Money and Credit Creation exploded in the United…
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October 9, 2018

The Investors Podcast Interview On The US – China Trade War

I recently spoke with The Investors Podcast about the repercussions that the US – China Trade War could have on China, the United States and the rest of the world; and the risks that the trade war could soon become a Cold War or even a Hot War.   Please find a link to that timely…
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October 4, 2018

Credit Update: Government Debt Spikes

Our economic system evolved from Capitalism into Creditism once money ceased to be backed by gold 50 years ago.  Under Capitalism, economic growth was driven by Saving and Investment.  Under Creditism, economic growth is driven by Credit Creation and Consumption.  Between 1952 and 2009, every time Credit (adjusted for inflation) grew by less than 2%,…
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September 20, 2018

All The Money In The World

Earlier Macro Watch videos this year have shown how the central banks of the United States, Japan, Europe and China have created money on a multi-trillion dollar scale and deployed it in order to achieve particular domestic policy objectives. The new Macro Watch video presents a broader perspective.  It looks at the Monetary Base of…
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September 18, 2018

Excellent Podcast Explaining The US-China Trade War

In this Financial Sense podcast, Cris Sheridan and I discuss all aspects of the US-China Trade War, including why it could be a turning point in history, one that not only stops China’s rise, but also sinks the entire world into a new Great Depression. Topics discussed: President Trump appears to have launched this trade…
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August 30, 2018

Chinese Monetary Policy Part 2: Crisis Management

Large-scale capital flight out of China threatened to send the Chinese economy into crisis beginning in mid-2014.  As a result, the People’s Bank Of China was forced to radically change the way it carried out Monetary Policy.  Rather than buying foreign currency to prevent the RMB from appreciating, as it had done for decades, the…
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August 28, 2018

Renegade Inc. TV Interview. Highly Recommended

In this television interview for Renegade Inc., Ross Ashcroft and I discuss Creditism and the opportunities and dangers that exist at this unique moment in history. The global economy no longer works the way it did when Money was backed by Gold.  After 1971, Capitalism evolved into Creditism. Creditism has pulled hundreds of millions of people…
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August 17, 2018

Chinese Monetary Policy, Part 1: Transforming The World

Between 1990 and 2014, the People’s Bank Of China created RMB 28 trillion, the equivalent of more than US$4 trillion.  What the central bank did with that money turned China into an economic superpower, it caused global economic growth to accelerate and it pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.  If the PBOC…
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August 1, 2018

Trade War Part 3: If China Fights Back

It is inconceivable that China would submit to President Trump’s demands that China reduce its trade surplus with the US by $200 billion per year.  If the United States imposes more trade tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, it is very likely that China will fight back. The final Macro Watch video in this…
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July 24, 2018

Trade War Part 2: If China Capitulates

President Trump has threatened to impose trade tariffs on all $500 billion worth of goods that China exports to the US each year unless China submits to his demands to reduce its trade surplus with the US by $200 billion a year.  The new Macro Watch video, the second in a three-part series,  considers the…
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July 21, 2018

US-China Trade War: On The Brink

President Trump believes China poses a grave threat to the United States. His demands for trade concessions from China are designed to eliminate that threat. China cannot possibly meet those demands, however, since a large reduction in its trade surplus with the United States could cause the Chinese economy to spiral into a severe Depression….
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