Blog

June 13, 2020

Stocks: Boom or Bust?

It is difficult to imagine a worse economic environment.    The US economy is expected to contract by between one third and one half during the second quarter.  For the full year, the Fed expects the economy to shrink by 6.5%.  The unemployment rate is 13.3%.  Corporate earnings are expected to be abysmal.   And yet, up until a few…
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June 6, 2020

Watch This Speech: How The Economy And Financial Markets Really Work Today

If you want to understand how the economy really works today and the forces driving the financial markets in the 21stCentury, watch this presentation I made for the CFA Society in Brazil.   New and potential Macro Watch subscribers will find it to be a very useful introduction to my work. The speech is more than…
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May 30, 2020

Gold Is Not A Sure Bet

The new Macro Watch video discusses how and why the price of Gold has moved up and down since 1970; and it warns that an investment in Gold is not a sure bet. Gold is a hedge against inflation.  The price of Gold goes up when people fear there will be significantly higher rates of inflation.  But,…
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May 16, 2020

When Creditism Met Covid-19

Our economic system, Creditism, was fragile and on government life support before the Coronavirus hit the United States.  Now it is in intensive care. The new Macro Watch video describes the government policies that kept Creditism from collapse between the Crisis of 2008 and the end of 2019. It then looks ahead to consider what it…
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May 3, 2020

Interview: Lessons From The Covid-19 Crisis

I have done a lot of podcast interviews recently discussing the dire economic consequences brought about by the Coronavirus and what must be done to mitigate them.   I believe this is one of the very best.   I cannot recall another interview that captures my economic philosophy better than this one does in such a short space…
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April 29, 2020

US Banks On Life Support

The new Macro Watch video shows that, without the unprecedented support that the government and the Fed are providing to the economy during the Coronavirus crisis, it is likely that all the major banks in the United States would go bankrupt. It is easy to understand why.  Banks are highly leveraged.  The loans they have extended and…
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April 24, 2020

Interview: Libertarianism, R. I. P.

I was recently interviewed by Hunter Thompson for a Cash Flow Connections podcast.  We discussed the economic, political and geopolitical consequences of the Coronavirus. This is an interview you won’t want to miss, even if you have listened to all of the other interviews I have posted lately.   In this conversation, Hunter and I go off…
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April 16, 2020

Interview: The Coronavirus Economy

I had a really great conversation with my friend Andy Tanner for The Cashflow Academy recently. I highly recommend listening to this interview. It covers so much of what is important now regarding the outlook for the economy, the correct economic policy response to the Coronavirus crisis, the nature and fragility of our 21st Century…
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April 12, 2020

28 Days (and $1.8 trillion) Later

During the last four weeks, the Fed has prevented the complete collapse of the US economy by creating $1.8 trillion.  It has used that new money to extend $1.8 trillion of Federal Reserve Credit, primarily by acquiring Treasury bonds. This has caused the Fed’s total assets to expand by 41% in just 28 days. This data…
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March 27, 2020

Life During Wartime Part Two

The Senate passed a $2 trillion stimulus bill this week.   That is not going to be enough. The new Macro Watch video, uploaded today, considers two scenarios of how much fiscal stimulus will be required this year to prevent the economy from collapsing: Scenario One assumes $2.5 trillion of fiscal stimulus will be required.  This is…
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March 25, 2020

Life During Wartime

A wartime effort will be required to defeat the Coronavirus and prevent the US economy from collapsing into a Depression.  But this war is very different from any we have fought before. The new Macro Watch video contrasts the war we are fighting today with World War II.   During World War II: US government debt jumped by…
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March 19, 2020

Interview: How To Prevent A Depression

This is the most important interview I have ever given.  Listen to it now. The global economy is being crushed by the Coronavirus.  Chaos reigns in the financial markets.  In this Financial Sense interview with Cris Sheridan, I lay out what must be done to prevent the United States economy from collapsing into a Depression. …
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March 15, 2020

Recession or Depression?

The United States economy will almost certainly fall into Recession this year because of the Coronavirus.  The outcome, however, could be very much worse than that.  Whether the US economy spirals into a Depression or merely a Recession will be determined by the size and the speed of the fiscal and monetary policy response to the…
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March 7, 2020

The Fed Considers Buying A Wider Range Of Assets

On March 1st, Macro Watch uploaded a video entitled “Thoughts On The Coronavirus”.  That video warned Macro Watch subscribers to be prepared for the Fed to take drastic measures to prevent a stock market crash.  It raised the possibility that the Fed may even begin to buy stocks directly to push stock prices higher. Today,…
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March 1, 2020

Thoughts On The Coronavirus

In the Macro Watch video uploaded today, I share my thoughts on the Coronavirus. How long it is likely to last. How it has impacted the global economy to date. How it is likely to impact corporate earnings, asset prices and the global economy during the weeks ahead. This video also discusses the drastic measures…
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February 18, 2020

America’s National Emergency: Part 3

China surpassed the United States in R&D investment last year.  It will soon become much stronger than the US – technologically, economically and militarily – if the US doesn’t radically expand its investment in R&D.  This is a national emergency that requires an immediate and aggressive response by the US government. Senate Minority Leader, Charles Schumer recently…
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February 4, 2020

America’s National Emergency: Part 2

China overtook the United States in Research and Development (R&D) investment last year.  Moreover, its lead over the US will widen rapidly during the years immediately ahead if current trends continue.  China’s lead in R&D spending represents a nation emergency and, potentially, an existential threat to the United States. Macro Watch has begun a three-part series that…
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January 21, 2020

America’s National Emergency

China surpassed the United States in Research and Development (R&D) investment last year.  This constitutes a national emergency for the United States on par with, or greater than, the Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik in 1957.  If China continues to invest more in R&D than the United States does, it will soon become the world’s…
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January 7, 2020

Corporate Sector Concerns

The new Macro Watch video examines the balance sheet and the earnings of the US Corporate Sector.  They reveal a number of reasons to be concerned about the Sector’s health. Corporate debt to GDP is at a record high.  The previous three peaks in corporate debt to GDP were followed by recessions. The increase in Corporate Sector…
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December 24, 2019

Recommended Interview: How Much Will The Fed Print This Time?

I recently had a particularly interesting conversation with Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense Newshour.  I highly recommend it.  The topic?    The most extraordinary Monetary Policy U-Turn in the Fed’s 105-year history; and its implications for investors and for government policy. One year ago, the Fed was hiking interest rates and destroying $50 billion a…
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