September 21, 2017

Watch Richard Duncan’s Speech For The CFA Institute in Brazil

Last month I had the great good fortune to go on a speaking tour around South America at the invitation of the CFA Institute. I spoke before the CFA Societies in Santiago, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Miami (and managed to get in some glorious vacation time in Valparaiso and Rio along the way)….
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September 12, 2017

Frequently Asked Questions About The Global Economic Crisis

The new Macro Watch video addresses the following questions:   1. Is a new Great Depression inevitable? 2. Should we return to a Gold Standard? 3. Wouldn’t it be best to stop interfering with market forces and just let the global economic bubble deflate? 4. What can individuals do to protect their wealth?   Macro…
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August 28, 2017

The Four Great Threats To Our Unstable Global Economy

The latest Macro Watch video describes the Four Great Threats facing the global economy: 1.  The Crisis In Creditism 2. President Trump’s Economic Policies 3. China’s Economic Crisis 4. Quantitative Tightening Any one of these threats could pop the global economic bubble and throw the world into a new Depression. Macro Watch subscribers can log…
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August 12, 2017

Who’s To Blame For The Global Economic Crisis?

There’s a great deal of confusion about what has gone wrong with the global economy. Everyone seems to have a favorite scapegoat to blame for the crisis. Richard Nixon, Alan Greenspan and Bill Clinton frequently top the list of alleged culprits. Many people point to financial sector deregulation beginning in the 1970s or to free…
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July 25, 2017

Bubble or Recession: The Fed Must Choose

Janet Yellen and her colleagues are facing a difficult predicament. If the Fed does not tighten monetary policy, then a destabilizing asset price bubble could run out of control and wreck the banking sector again. However, if the Fed does tighten monetary policy, then credit is likely to contract, in which case the economy would…
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July 11, 2017

Investors Should Be Terrified Of The Imminent Liquidity Shock

We are now entering a very dangerous period for asset prices and the global economy. The Fed plans to drain more than $1 trillion of liquidity from the financial markets by the end of 2019. That’s not just taking the punch bowl away. It’s more like pumping the stomach of a chronic alcoholic. The ECB…
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June 27, 2017

Monetary Revolution: No Constraints

A Monetary Revolution began when Money ceased to be backed by Gold in 1971. Since then, central banks have taken over the management of the global economy by creating more than $22 trillion, which they have used to manipulate currencies, interest rates and asset prices. To invest successfully, you must understand how central banks are…
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June 13, 2017

Monetary Revolution

Over the last nine years, since the crisis of 2008 began, a revolution has occurred in the way in which government policymakers manage the economy – both at the national level and the global level. It has been nothing short of a Monetary Revolution. No textbooks have yet been written that explain this radical departure…
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May 25, 2017

Quantitative Tightening: The Fed’s New Very Bad Idea

The Fed intends to reverse Quantitative Easing beginning later this year. That is a very bad idea that could inflict severe damage on the economy and destroy your wealth. The new Macro Watch video lays out everything you need to know about Quantitative Tightening. Quantitative Easing (QE) was perhaps the most important element in a…
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Richard Duncan Global Economic Growth
May 10, 2017

Can Global Economic Growth Continue?

“Globalization presumes sustained economic growth. Otherwise, the process loses its economic benefits and political support.” – Paul Samuelson Today, global economic growth is weak and globalization is under political siege. The new Macro Watch video presents a snapshot of the global economy in order to assess its growth prospects. We begin by looking at the…
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May 4, 2017

The Investors Podcast Interview. Highly Recommended

I recently had a very interesting discussion with Preston Pysh and Stig Brodersen of The Investors Podcast.  I highly recommend that you listen to this free podcast now. Topics discussed include: My recent conversation with Alan Greenspan concerning how the creation of fiat money by central banks outside the United States caused the Fed to…
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April 20, 2017

The Return Of Crowding Out Threatens Your Wealth

It has long been understood that when the government borrows excessively, it pushes up interest rates and Crowds Out the private sector. Before the breakdown of the Bretton Woods International Monetary System, money was backed by gold. Consequently, there was only a limited amount of it and governments had no power to create any more….
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April 10, 2017

The Credit Structure Of The United States And Its Vulnerabilities

It is not possible to understand an economy without understanding how that economy is financed. In the latest Macro Watch video, we examine the credit structure of the United States and we explore its vulnerabilities. We see who has lent the $66 trillion that has been borrowed in the United States. We also consider the…
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March 28, 2017

Creditism In Crisis

Our economic system changed in a fundamental way when we stopped backing Dollars with Gold.  That change removed the most important constraint on how much credit could be created. Afterwards, credit growth became THE driver of economic growth. Over the last 53 years, Credit in the United States has expanded 66-fold to $66 trillion. And…
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March 10, 2017

Beware A Stronger Dollar

When the Dollar appreciated by 22% between June 2014 and March 2015, commodity prices fell, emerging markets suffered, world trade contracted, US corporate profits fell and US stocks stalled. There are reasons to believe that another significant round of Dollar appreciation has begun. In the latest Macro Watch video we weigh the factors supporting a…
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March 9, 2017

Trump’s Recipe For Disaster – Free Podcast – Correct Link

Please note: I attached the wrong link to this podcast last night, so I am reposting this blog with the correct link. Sorry for any inconvenience caused. In February, I went on a roadshow to meet with institutional investors in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles.   I made presentations to roughly two dozen…
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March 8, 2017

Trump’s Recipe For Disaster – Free Podcast

In February, I went on a roadshow to meet with institutional investors in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles.   I made presentations to roughly two dozen investment firms. Collectively they manage well over US$100 billion. The title of my presentation was “Trump’s Recipe For Disaster”. I recently discussed this presentation with Cris Sheridan…
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March 2, 2017

The Factors Driving And Constraining US Economic Growth

For any economy to grow, one or more of the following things must occur: 1) The Workforce must grow, 2) Wages must increase, 3) Credit must expand and/or 4) Wealth must grow. In the latest Macro Watch video we look at each of these growth drivers and consider the constraints they will impose on economic…
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February 12, 2017

My Warning To Some Of The World’s Largest Investment Managers

I’ve just returned from a couple of very interesting weeks in the United States. In mid-January, I had the opportunity to meet Alan Greenspan and to ask him a question that I believe is of historic importance. That was the subject of the Macro Watch video uploaded on January 25th. Two weeks later, I was…
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