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Bears Beware: Rate Cuts Ahead

The stock market and the bond market have both rallied sharply this month on the belief that interest rates have peaked and that the Fed will begin cutting rates before the middle of next year.

However, the Fed will only begin to cut interest rates if inflation continues to decelerate.

It is important, therefore, to have a clear read on the outlook for inflation.

To judge the future direction of inflation, the Fed closely monitors trends in the three component categories of Core PCE Inflation:  

  1. Core Goods Inflation,
  2. Housing Services Inflation, and
  3. Inflation in Core Services excluding Housing.

This video takes a close look at all three of these categories and discusses the forces that are directing their movements.

For all the details, Macro Watch subscribers can log in and watch this 21-minute video now.  There are also 42 slides that subscribers can download.

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