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October 30, 2016

Derivatives Reform Razzle-Dazzle

Derivatives Reform is enormously important for the future of our economic system for two reasons. First, without the enforcement of effective reform, we cannot be certain that our largest financial institutions are solvent. We now know that if any one of them fails, they will all fail. We also know that a systemic financial sector…
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October 28, 2016

Derivatives Reform: Real or Razzmatazz?

Eight years after the near implosion of the international financial system came close to plunging the world into a New Great Depression, and six years after the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protections Act became law, Half A Quadrillion Dollars worth of derivatives contracts are still trading Over-The-Counter (OTC) with limited transparency and insufficient…
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October 21, 2016

Deregulation, Derivatives And The Threat Of Mass Destruction

[Read this free chapter from The Corruption Of Capitalism now.] Eight years after the global financial system came very close to being destroyed by out of control speculation in the unregulated derivatives market, there is still nearly Half A Quadrillion Dollars worth of derivatives trading in opaque Over The Counter (OTC) markets. Next week I…
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October 6, 2016

Weak And Vulnerable

The US economy remains weak and vulnerable. The new Macro Watch video explains why. The economy is weak because credit growth remains too sluggish to drive the economy as it did in the past. With interest rates near record low levels, credit should be expanding much more quickly than it is. In this video, we…
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September 30, 2016

What Did You Miss In Q3?

Macro Watch covered a lot of important topics during the third quarter. Please check the list below to make sure you haven’t missed anything. Free For Everyone (no password required) Two Podcasts The Evolution Of The International Monetary System, 1914 to 2016: Free Podcast https://richardduncaneconomics.com/the-evolution-of-the-international-monetary-system-1914-to-2016-free-podcast/   Frank Answers To Tough Questions: Free McAlvany Podcast https://richardduncaneconomics.com/frank-answers-to-tough-questions-free-mcalvany-podcast/…
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September 25, 2016

The Policy Response To The New Depression – Highly Recommended

Below, please find the last chapter of the paperback version of my first book, The Dollar Crisis.  It was written in December 2004, four years before the beginning of the global economic crisis and the launch of Quantitative Easing. THE DOLLAR CRISIS:  Chapter 20 BERNANKEISM ANTICIPATING THE POLICY RESPONSE TO DEFLATION The Fed would already…
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September 22, 2016

The Outlook For Interest Rates: Trumpthing Could Go Terribly Wrong

Asset prices and the economy are being held up by ultra low interest rates in the United States and around the world. If interest rates now begin to rise significantly, asset prices will crash and the economy will sink into a deep recession – or worse. An inflation shock would have catastrophic consequences, as it…
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September 9, 2016

The Prospects For Asset Prices: 2017

The new Macro Watch video uploaded today considers the outlook for equities, bonds/interest rates, property prices, commodities and currencies. Topics include: Important lessons from the last two stock market corrections Will the Fed hike interest rates? If so, what will be the impact on each of the major asset classes? Where will the S&P 500…
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August 26, 2016

Last Year’s Very Dangerous Moment: Watch Free Video

Last year at this time, the financial markets were gripped by panic following a surprise devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. At that time, I uploaded a video called, The Prospects For Asset Prices: A Very Dangerous Moment, in which I shared my views on the outlook for stocks, bonds, property, commodities and currencies. Please find…
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August 6, 2016

Libertarian Murray Rothbard Was Dangerously Wrong

In 1963, Murray Rothbard published a book called America’s Great Depression, in which he argued that President Herbert Hoover made the Great Depression worse by introducing too many government policies to support the economy, when “the proper injunction to government in a depression is cut the budget and leave the economy strictly alone.” Although considered…
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July 30, 2016

Frank Answers To Tough Questions: Free McAlvany Podcast

I strongly recommend that you listen to this free podcast. My friend David McAlvany interviewed me for the highly respected McAlvany Weekly Commentary a few days ago. It was a great  conversation. He asked me a series of excellent, tough questions. You will find many of my answers more frank than usual – in part,…
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July 17, 2016

The World Is $300 Trillion In Debt

Credit growth has been the driver of economic growth for decades. That was the theme of my third book, The New Depression, and the subject of numerous Macro Watch videos since then. Up until now, my work has always focused on credit growth in the United States. In the latest Macro Watch video, uploaded today,…
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July 6, 2016

Forget Brexit, China’s The Real Crisis (Watch Free Video)

Brexit has been dominating the world’s business headlines during the past few weeks. But the impact of Brexit on the global economy is likely to be relatively minor compared with the coming fallout from the economic Hard Landing now underway in China. Macro Watch has just concluded a five-part series on China’s economic crisis. Today,…
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June 30, 2016

Chimerica In Crisis

This is one video you won’t want to miss. Chimerica is a term coined by the historian Niall Ferguson in 2006 to describe the economic relationship between the United States and China. Ferguson wrote: “Think of the United States and the People’s Republic not as two countries, but as one: Chimerica. It’s quite a place:…
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June 13, 2016

China’s Economic Crisis, Part 4: One World Is Not Enough

China’s economy is freakishly unbalanced. Investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) makes up 44% of China’s GDP, whereas Household Consumption makes up only 38% of GDP. For the world as a whole, Investment makes up just 24% of global GDP, while Household Consumption makes up 57%. Perhaps not since the Pharaohs built the Pyramids with slave…
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June 1, 2016

China’s Economic Crisis, Part 3: The Risks Of Chinese QE

China’s economic growth engine is fuelled by extraordinarily large amounts of credit. In 2015, it took RMB 15.4 trillion (US$2.4 trillion) of credit growth to generate RMB 4.1 trillion (US$631 billion) of economic growth. In this video, the third in a series on the economic crisis now unfolding in China, we consider how much new…
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May 15, 2016

China’s Economic Crisis: Part 2, The Colossal Boom (1990 – 2014)

Chinese Investment increased 50-fold between 1990 and 2014. Investment (i.e. Gross Fixed Capital Formation or GFCF) in China grew from US$92 billion in 1990 to US$4.6 trillion in 2014. During the last 25 years in China: The Gross Output Value of Construction increased by 134 times, growing at an average annual rate of 21%. Building…
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