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China Downgraded

“China’s economy will not overtake the US until 2060, if ever”

That was the title of an article written by Ruchir Sharma, the chair of Rockefeller International, and published in the Financial Times on October 24th.  

Many people have long argued that China’s economy would soon overtake the US economy to become the world’s largest.

But Mr. Sharma makes the case that China’s growth potential is only around 2.5% a year over the next decade, a far cry from the double-digit growth rates that China has frequently experienced since the 1980s.

The new Macro Watch video examines the long and growing list of problems weighing down China’s economic growth, including:

  • China’s Deflating Property MegaBubble
  • President Xi Jinping’s Zero Covid Policy
  • And His Plan To Reassert Communist Party Control Over The Economy
  • The US-China Economic Cold War and the New US Semiconductor Embargo
  • China’s Shrinking Population
  • The End Of The Era Of Export-Led Growth
  • Excess Investment On An Extraordinary Scale & Under Consumption
  • Belt And Road Troubles
  • Growing Dependence On Government Budget Deficits, and
  • Worrying Credit Bubble Dynamics

The video also considers the impact that much slower growth in China will have on the rest of the world.

It concludes by explaining why China remains a threat to US National Security despite its slowing economy.

For all the details, Macro Watch subscribers can log in and watch this 24-minute video now.  The presentation contains 57 slides that subscribers can download.  

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