What If Anthropic’s IPO Fails?
Posted October 29, 2026
Could the failure of one IPO trigger a stock market crash and a severe recession?
Anthropic, one of the world’s leading artificial intelligence companies, is preparing for what could be the largest initial public offering in history.
The IPO is likely to succeed. But what if it doesn’t?
What if investors refuse to pay the valuation Anthropic is seeking, forcing the company to withdraw its offering?
The consequences could be devastating.
An Extraordinary Amount of Money Is at Stake
Anthropic’s recently filed IPO prospectus reveals approximately $800 billion in potential AI computing expenditures, including agreements with Broadcom, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and other major technology companies.
And Anthropic is only half the story.
OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, has announced or reportedly entered into approximately $720 billion in computing agreements of its own.
Together, these two companies have potential AI computing expenditures totaling roughly $1.5 trillion. These figures include firm commitments, conditional agreements, and estimated future spending.
Both companies depend on continued access to enormous amounts of capital to finance their expansion.
If Anthropic’s IPO fails because investors lose confidence in its valuation or financial prospects, investors would almost certainly begin questioning OpenAI’s prospects as well.
The implications for the entire AI industry would be enormous.
From an AI Stock Market Crash to an Economic Crisis
The stock market would react immediately.
Investors wouldn’t wait for Anthropic and OpenAI to reduce their spending or for their suppliers to report disappointing earnings.
They would begin selling shares in companies whose future profits depend on the continuation of the AI investment boom.
But the consequences wouldn’t necessarily stop with falling stock prices.
The AI boom has become one of the principal engines of US economic growth, supported by extraordinary capital investment and trillions of dollars in stock market wealth creation.
A collapse in confidence could set off a chain reaction involving tighter credit, canceled investment projects, falling corporate profits, and a sharp decline in household wealth.
Together, these forces could push the US economy into a deep and prolonged recession.
What If the IPO Fails?
In this new Macro Watch video, I examine how the failure of Anthropic’s IPO could spread through the AI ecosystem, financial markets, and the broader economy.
I look at Anthropic’s extraordinary spending commitments, the companies and investors with the most at stake, and how a loss of confidence could undermine the entire AI investment boom.
I also examine how the Federal Reserve and the US government might respond if the resulting financial turmoil threatened a severe recession.
I am not predicting that Anthropic’s IPO will fail. The most likely outcome is that it will succeed.
But understanding what could happen if it fails reveals just how much of the stock market and the US economy now depends on the continued success of the AI boom.
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