Watch Richard Duncan’s Speech For The CFA Institute in Brazil
Posted September 21, 2017
Last month I had the great good fortune to go on a speaking tour around South America at the invitation of the CFA Institute.
I spoke before the CFA Societies in Santiago, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo and Miami (and managed to get in some glorious vacation time in Valparaiso and Rio along the way). My topic was: How to Understand Economics and The Financial Markets in The Post-Bretton Woods World.
Macro Watch subscribers can log in and watch the entire speech now. It is an hour long, followed by 20 minutes of Q&A. There are 80 downloadable slides.
Our economic system and financial markets work very differently now than they did under the Gold Standard or the Bretton-Woods System. Economic theory, however, is still stuck in the 19th Century. This speech explains how the upheavals of the last century produced a Monetary Revolution that transformed the world.
- I begin by describing the evolution of the global economy after the breakdown of Bretton Woods.
- I then discuss the tools now available to policymakers in this new environment and how they are being used to manage economic growth.
- Next, I discuss how to anticipate movements in interest rates, currencies, commodity prices and asset prices in this new regime.
- Finally, I talk about the dangers and opportunities that exist within this post-Bretton Woods age.
The Macro Watch videos I publish cover a wide range of topics. This speech ties all of those topics together by laying out the framework that underpins them all. From the collapse of the Gold Standard to Bitcoin to the perils of Quantitative Tightening, it’s all here.
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I have been following Richard’s ideas for years, and when I first learnt of them I felt that everything had to change soon.
Then I realized that the opposite was true. That the system was trapped in a way. Everyone seemed to be involved in a collective pretense of going about business as usual and looking away, while pumping up the very life raft they were floating in, knowing at the same time that if they did not drown then their children or grandchildren would. A game of musical chairs and Russian roulette combined, waiting for the bubble to burst.
The overall picture seemed dystopian and hopeless, but now I do think there might be an avenue out of all this. I haven’t thought it through in detail, but I do keep trying. Check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSN5BaCzsbo&feature=youtu.be&t=21m45s