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Are The Central Banks Out Of Ammunition?

Posted March 11, 2016

Yesterday, the European Central Bank expanded its QE program by one-third and cut bank deposit rates deeper into negative territory. How did the markets react? Stock prices fell, while bond

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Negative Interest Rates: How Did This Happen?…

Posted February 26, 2016

Until recently, negative interest rates were considered inconceivable. Now, however, $7 trillion worth of bonds are trading at negative yields. That means the owners of those bonds are guaranteed to

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Death Spiral? Make That Plural

Posted February 13, 2016

Last week Citi made headlines by publishing a report claiming the global economy is trapped in a “Death Spiral”. The timing of the report was perfect. Financial markets were in

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Negative Liquidity Will Drive Stocks Lower

Posted February 3, 2016

Liquidity in the United States turned negative in the fourth quarter of 2015. I believe this played an important role in the severe stock market selloff that began around that

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How My Career Shaped My Views On The Global E…

Posted January 24, 2016

In the new Macro Watch video uploaded today, I describe how my 30-year career in the investment industry has shaped my views on what drives the global economy and the

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Weak Credit Growth Signals Recession Ahead

Posted January 3, 2016

Between 1952 and 2008, every time US credit growth (adjusted for inflation) fell below 2%, the United States went into recession. During that period, the ratio of total credit to

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Rate Hike: Trouble Ahead

Posted December 19, 2015

On December 16th, the Fed hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. The world did not come to an end, but there is clearly trouble ahead.

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American Meltdown: The Crisis Of 2008

Posted December 6, 2015

In 2008 the American Financial System failed. In this video, uploaded today, we take a look back at the systemic meltdown of the US financial sector and at the crisis

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Interview: Austrian Economics Would Destroy T…

Posted December 3, 2015

I could have used many different headlines to announce this interview (which was conducted by Cris Sheridan for the outstanding financial website, Financial Sense). I could have used: “Pray For

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Asia & The Slump In World Trade

Posted November 20, 2015

Asia is being hit hard by the slump in world trade that has resulted from the sharp economic slowdown in China. In the latest Macro Watch video, uploaded today, we

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