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November 22, 2014

The McAlvany Interview: QE 4? “They’ll have to.”

The McAlvany Weekly Commentary is simply one of the very best sources of information and analysis on monetary, economic and geo-political news available to the public today. Recently, David McAlvany invited me back to his show to discuss the state of the global economy at the end of 2014. It is always a pleasure to…
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November 10, 2014

FX Reserve Accumulation Is Quantitative Easing

The accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves has a profound impact on global asset prices – just as Quantitative Easing does. That makes Foreign Exchange Reserves (which now amount to $12 trillion) one of the most important, but least understood, aspects of how the global economy works now, in this post-Bretton Woods era. In FX Reserves,…
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October 28, 2014

Analyzing The Five Largest Central Banks

The latest Macro Watch video (uploaded today) analyzes the strategies and compares the balance sheets of the world’s five largest central banks: The People’s Bank of China, The Federal Reserve, The European Central Bank, The Bank of Japan and The Bank of England. Central banks print money for one of three reasons: 1) To end…
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October 17, 2014

Bullard’s Call To Extend QE Halts Market Panic

Yesterday morning, St Louis Fed President James Bullard stopped the stock market crash in its tracks. In a live interview on Bloomberg Television, he said: “…I think a reasonable response of the Fed in this situation would be to … go on pause on the taper…” (i.e. to extend Quantitative Easing). When he began that…
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October 12, 2014

Slowing Global Liquidity Points To Deflation Ahead

The Fed is about to end its third round of Quantitative Easing, but the Bank of Japan is printing Yen faster than ever before and the European Central Bank intends to reaccelerate its creation of Euros. So, THE question is: Will the increase in new Yen and Euros be enough to compensate for the end…
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October 2, 2014

The Prospects For Asset Prices

Prepare for a stock market sell-off. A new Macro Watch video has been uploaded. In it, I discuss the outlook for stocks, bonds/interest rates, property, commodities and currencies. Topics include: Where will the S&P Index be at the end of next year? Why the Fed won’t begin to increase interest rates any time soon. Will…
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September 26, 2014

Why The Fed Will Launch Another Round Of Quantitative Easing

In November 2002, Fed Governor Ben Bernanke introduced the concept of Quantitative Easing to the world. In a speech entitled “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here”, he explained that the Fed could prevent deflation from taking hold in the United States by creating money and using it to acquire government and agency (i.e. Fannie…
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September 9, 2014

How Strong Is The US Economic Recovery?

A new Macro Watch video has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. Judging from most press reports, it would be easy to form the impression that the US economy is booming. It’s not. This video presents a balanced assessment of the health of the US economy. After $6 trillion of budget deficits, 0%…
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August 6, 2014

The Household Sector Balance Sheet Is Pointing To Trouble

A new Macro Watch video has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. In this video, we look at the Household Sector’s Balance Sheet and, in particular, at the composition of Household Sector Assets. We find compelling evidence within this data that the stock market is significantly overvalued and vulnerable to a sharp correction….
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July 27, 2014

WATCH RICHARD DUNCAN’S SPEECH: How Capitalism Died & Where That Leaves Us

Capitalism died during the two World Wars. In this speech, I discuss the transformation of our economic system from Capitalism to Creditism during the Twentieth Century. I also describe what may come next, highlighting the extraordinary possibilities Creditism presents, as well as the catastrophic consequences that would follow from its collapse. You need not be…
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July 21, 2014

Dissecting The Fed’s Balance Sheet

The third video for Macro Watch Third Quarter 2014 has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. In this video, we dissect the Fed’s balance sheet. On the asset side, we see which assets the Fed has acquired with the $3.5 trillion it has created since 2009; and we discuss the impact those asset…
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July 7, 2014

The Fed’s New Magic Trick

The Fed has pulled a new rabbit out of its hat: Reverse Repos. By using reverse repos, the Fed has found a way to deal with its two most pressing challenges of 2014: 1) preventing the high levels of excess liquidity during the second quarter from creating a stock market boom and bubble, and 2)…
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July 2, 2014

Credit: How Much Does It Take?

I’ve begun to roll out Macro Watch: Third Quarter 2014. The first video, Credit: How Much Does It Take?, has been uploaded and is ready to watch. In this video, we consider how much credit growth it would take to restore solid economic growth in the United States. Looking at this sector by sector, it…
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April 25, 2014

My Best Interview

For anyone who is interested in understanding my views on the global economic crisis, this is the video I would recommend watching, if I could only recommend one. In it, I am able to address almost all of the ideas I have tried to convey through my books and speeches over the past ten years….
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April 12, 2014

Watch Q2 Macro Watch Preview: Treacherous Markets Ahead!

To watch a 6-minute overview of Macro Watch: Second Quarter 2014, click on the link at the bottom of this blog. But first, an announcement: Today I am offering the followers of this blog a 33% discount on an annual subscription to Macro Watch. If you are interested, click on this link: https://richardduncaneconomics.com/product/macro-watch/ and use…
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March 29, 2014

Macro Watch Q2 2014 Is Ready To Watch

Macro Watch: Second Quarter 2014 has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. This quarter, there are seven videos, beginning with one warning investors that the stock market may be particularly treacherous over the rest of this year. Here’s what you can expect: Contents: 1. Treacherous Markets Ahead A warning to investors: Shifting Liquidity…
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March 21, 2014

The Liquidity Gauge

Central bank forward guidance and communication are all fine and good, but it is liquidity that moves the markets. When liquidity is plentiful asset prices tend to rise and when it is scarce asset prices tend to fall. What investors require, therefore, is a simple way to measure and forecast liquidity, a liquidity gauge. A…
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March 3, 2014

CNBC Asia Squawk Box Interview

This morning I spoke with Martin Soong on CNBC Asia Squawk Box. We discussed the fundamental weakness of the US economy, the approaching shift in liquidity, the prospects for assets prices and the risk of a US recession in 2014 – all in less than 4 minutes. To get the facts behind the bullet points,…
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January 24, 2014

The CNBC India Interview: Why QE Won’t End in 2014

I was in Mumbai to speak at the CFA Institute’s India Investment Conference last week. While there, I was interviewed by CNBC India. I explained why I believe that Quantitative Easing will not end this year and what the continuation of QE on into 2015 will mean for Emerging Market economies and global asset prices….
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January 9, 2014

Watch MACRO WATCH on YouTube

Macro Watch First Quarter 2014 is now uploaded and ready to watch. It explains how the Fed’s new “Taper Schedule” is likely to impact Liquidity and Asset Prices on a quarter by quarter basis in 2014 and on into 2015. To watch the 4-minute introduction video on YouTube, click on the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4cPpnbopJo This…
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