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September 26, 2014

Why The Fed Will Launch Another Round Of Quantitative Easing

In November 2002, Fed Governor Ben Bernanke introduced the concept of Quantitative Easing to the world. In a speech entitled “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here”, he explained that the Fed could prevent deflation from taking hold in the United States by creating money and using it to acquire government and agency (i.e. Fannie…
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September 9, 2014

How Strong Is The US Economic Recovery?

A new Macro Watch video has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. Judging from most press reports, it would be easy to form the impression that the US economy is booming. It’s not. This video presents a balanced assessment of the health of the US economy. After $6 trillion of budget deficits, 0%…
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August 6, 2014

The Household Sector Balance Sheet Is Pointing To Trouble

A new Macro Watch video has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. In this video, we look at the Household Sector’s Balance Sheet and, in particular, at the composition of Household Sector Assets. We find compelling evidence within this data that the stock market is significantly overvalued and vulnerable to a sharp correction….
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July 27, 2014

WATCH RICHARD DUNCAN’S SPEECH: How Capitalism Died & Where That Leaves Us

Capitalism died during the two World Wars. In this speech, I discuss the transformation of our economic system from Capitalism to Creditism during the Twentieth Century. I also describe what may come next, highlighting the extraordinary possibilities Creditism presents, as well as the catastrophic consequences that would follow from its collapse. You need not be…
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July 21, 2014

Dissecting The Fed’s Balance Sheet

The third video for Macro Watch Third Quarter 2014 has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. In this video, we dissect the Fed’s balance sheet. On the asset side, we see which assets the Fed has acquired with the $3.5 trillion it has created since 2009; and we discuss the impact those asset…
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July 7, 2014

The Fed’s New Magic Trick

The Fed has pulled a new rabbit out of its hat: Reverse Repos. By using reverse repos, the Fed has found a way to deal with its two most pressing challenges of 2014: 1) preventing the high levels of excess liquidity during the second quarter from creating a stock market boom and bubble, and 2)…
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July 2, 2014

Credit: How Much Does It Take?

I’ve begun to roll out Macro Watch: Third Quarter 2014. The first video, Credit: How Much Does It Take?, has been uploaded and is ready to watch. In this video, we consider how much credit growth it would take to restore solid economic growth in the United States. Looking at this sector by sector, it…
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April 25, 2014

My Best Interview

For anyone who is interested in understanding my views on the global economic crisis, this is the video I would recommend watching, if I could only recommend one. In it, I am able to address almost all of the ideas I have tried to convey through my books and speeches over the past ten years….
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April 12, 2014

Watch Q2 Macro Watch Preview: Treacherous Markets Ahead!

To watch a 6-minute overview of Macro Watch: Second Quarter 2014, click on the link at the bottom of this blog. But first, an announcement: Today I am offering the followers of this blog a 33% discount on an annual subscription to Macro Watch. If you are interested, click on this link: https://richardduncaneconomics.com/product/macro-watch/ and use…
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March 29, 2014

Macro Watch Q2 2014 Is Ready To Watch

Macro Watch: Second Quarter 2014 has been uploaded and is now ready to watch. This quarter, there are seven videos, beginning with one warning investors that the stock market may be particularly treacherous over the rest of this year. Here’s what you can expect: Contents: 1. Treacherous Markets Ahead A warning to investors: Shifting Liquidity…
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March 21, 2014

The Liquidity Gauge

Central bank forward guidance and communication are all fine and good, but it is liquidity that moves the markets. When liquidity is plentiful asset prices tend to rise and when it is scarce asset prices tend to fall. What investors require, therefore, is a simple way to measure and forecast liquidity, a liquidity gauge. A…
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March 3, 2014

CNBC Asia Squawk Box Interview

This morning I spoke with Martin Soong on CNBC Asia Squawk Box. We discussed the fundamental weakness of the US economy, the approaching shift in liquidity, the prospects for assets prices and the risk of a US recession in 2014 – all in less than 4 minutes. To get the facts behind the bullet points,…
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January 24, 2014

The CNBC India Interview: Why QE Won’t End in 2014

I was in Mumbai to speak at the CFA Institute’s India Investment Conference last week. While there, I was interviewed by CNBC India. I explained why I believe that Quantitative Easing will not end this year and what the continuation of QE on into 2015 will mean for Emerging Market economies and global asset prices….
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January 9, 2014

Watch MACRO WATCH on YouTube

Macro Watch First Quarter 2014 is now uploaded and ready to watch. It explains how the Fed’s new “Taper Schedule” is likely to impact Liquidity and Asset Prices on a quarter by quarter basis in 2014 and on into 2015. To watch the 4-minute introduction video on YouTube, click on the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4cPpnbopJo This…
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January 6, 2014

Macro Watch First Quarter 2014 Has Been Uploaded

The new issue of Macro Watch is ready to watch. Its theme is that Quantitative Easing is unlikely to end in 2014. Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Economic Overview, With a Focus on Net Worth 3. Credit: Will Credit Growth Accelerate? 4. The Fed & Liquidity 5. Liquidity Conditions in 2014 and The Prospects for Asset…
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December 29, 2013

The McAlvany Weekly Commentary Interview

I had a very interesting conversation with David McAlvany for The McAlvany Weekly Commentary recently. We discussed: • The Fed’s serial bubble blowing strategy • The role liquidity plays in driving asset prices • How much the Fed is likely to taper • The possibility of much lower interest rates • The limits of asset…
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December 20, 2013

THE TAPER: Recalibrating Liquidity

The “Taper” has begun. It’s important to understand why. On December 18th, the Fed announced that it will begin to taper the amount of fiat money it creates each month from $85 billion to $75 billion starting in January. Chairman Bernanke also indicated that the Fed is likely to continue reducing the monthly amount of…
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December 1, 2013

The Financial Sense Newshour Interview

Jim Puplava interviewed me recently for Financial Sense Newshour. We discussed: Global economic challenges The “Policy Plan” and its flaws What the Fed wants and needs The outlook for the stock market Why the Fed will taper, but not stop, QE How to measure Liquidity, and to assess its impact on asset prices I also…
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November 20, 2013

The Squawk Box Asia Interview

This morning I spoke with the CNBC Asia Squawk Box team in their Singapore studio. We discussed Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech (which was taking place at that time) and what it suggests about when the Fed will begin to taper QE. I hope you’ll check out this conversation by clicking on the link at the…
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November 8, 2013

The Macro Analytics Interview on YouTube

I had an interesting conversation with Gordon T. Long of Macro Analytics recently. We discussed our economic future and what investors must monitor in this new age of fiat money. I introduce “The Liquidity Gauge” here for the first time. Gord did a great job of weaving charts into the interview and posting it on…
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