Weak Credit Growth May Force The Fed To Cut Rates
Posted April 26, 2024
Total Credit in the United States first exceeded $1 trillion in 1964. This quarter it will blow past $100 trillion. This 100-fold increase in Credit
Tag Archives: Credit Growth
Recession in 2024?
Posted December 29, 2023
Will the United States fall into Recession in 2024? Trends in Credit Growth suggest it will. It is important to monitor and forecast trends in
(Mis)Leading Economic Indicators Predicted A Recession That Didn’t Happen… Yet
Posted October 28, 2023
For more than a year, most economists, me included, have expected the United States economy to fall into a Recession. But that hasn’t happened. In fact,
Credit Trends Suggest A Recession Ahead
Posted September 28, 2023
This week, Macro Watch looks at trends in Credit Growth and Wealth Creation; and explains why those trends suggest the US economy will soon fall
Lending Slowdown Suggests Rate Hike Pause
Posted May 26, 2023
Fed Chairman Powell has said that the recent turmoil in the banking sector is likely to cause bank lending to slow; and that slower bank
Unchartered Territory
Posted April 14, 2023
Last year, Total Credit in the United States expanded by $5.1 trillion to $93.5 trillion. Total Credit first exceeded $1 trillion in 1964. Next year it will
Creditism In Crisis?
Posted October 16, 2022
Another set of very bad Inflation numbers was released on Thursday. The headline CPI index was up 8.2% from one year ago, little changed from the
Stocks, Property and The Economy May Crash This Year
Posted April 15, 2022
Last week, the US Yield Curve inverted, meaning that the Yield on 2-Year government bonds rose above the Yield on 10-Year government bonds. When the
Still Standing
Posted January 10, 2022
When the Covid pandemic began to crush the US economy in March 2020, Macro Watch published a series of videos on the subject, including one
Risks Are High And Rising
Posted December 20, 2021
The new Macro Watch video discusses the most important recent trends in credit growth and wealth creation based on the third quarter Financial Accounts of
Debt, Credit and Wealth Soared In 2020
Posted April 10, 2021
Total Credit in the United States soared by an astonishing $8 trillion last year to $83.5 Trillion, well above the previous peak increase of $5
Why China’s Winning
Posted December 17, 2020
China’s economy is on track to overtake the United States economy as the largest in the world in less than eight years, if current trends
Expect More Rate Cuts
Posted September 29, 2019
Credit Growth in the United States has been the most important driver of economic growth for decades, so it is important to monitor it closely. If