Credit Trends Suggest A Recession Ahead
Posted September 28, 2023
This week, Macro Watch looks at trends in Credit Growth and Wealth Creation; and explains why those trends suggest the US economy will soon fall
Tag Archives: Federal Funds Rate
Lending Slowdown Suggests Rate Hike Pause
Posted May 26, 2023
Fed Chairman Powell has said that the recent turmoil in the banking sector is likely to cause bank lending to slow; and that slower bank
Higher Interest Rates Will Destroy Wealth
Posted March 10, 2023
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks before the Senate on March 7th were very hawkish and suggest the Fed will raise the Federal Funds Rate significantly
Interview: The Credit Bubble Popped
Posted February 18, 2023
I was recently interviewed by Addison Wiggin for his podcast The Wiggin Sessions. Addison is a financial writer, publisher, filmmaker and the author or co-author
Inflation Is Down, But The Fed’s Not Finished
Posted February 3, 2023
On February 1st, the Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate by 25-basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. During the press conference following
Video Ready plus BOJ Primer
Posted December 22, 2022
Earlier this week, I uploaded a presentation entitled “More Wealth Destruction Ahead: Part Two”. The video accompanying that presentation is now ready to watch. It explains
More Wealth Destruction Ahead: Part Two
Posted December 19, 2022
The previous Macro Watch video showed that the Fed is tightening Monetary Policy much more aggressively in the current tightening cycle than during the previous
More Wealth Destruction Ahead, Part One
Posted December 2, 2022
The Fed is tightening Monetary Policy much faster and more aggressively now than during the previous tightening cycle that ran from January 2014 to August
The Fed May Lose $50 Billion in 2023
Posted November 15, 2022
Last year, if the Fed had been a corporation, it would have been the most profitable corporation in the world. It earned $108 billion. Apple earned
TIP Interview: “One Of My Favorites This Year”
Posted November 4, 2022
“This is one of my favorite interviews of the year so far. Richard @PaperMoneyEcon brings the 🔥 fire,” tweeted Trey Lockerbie, regarding our recent conversation for The
Creditism In Crisis?
Posted October 16, 2022
Another set of very bad Inflation numbers was released on Thursday. The headline CPI index was up 8.2% from one year ago, little changed from the
Watch Out: Something Is Going To Break!
Posted September 28, 2022
Last week, the Fed shocked investors when it released new projections showing that it now expects to increase interest rates significantly more than it had
Credit Creation, Rate Hikes and Recession Risks
Posted July 31, 2022
After Dollars ceased to be backed by Gold five decades ago, Credit Growth exploded and became the main driver of Economic Growth. Capitalism evolved into Creditism.
Prepare For A Very Hard Landing
Posted June 29, 2022
For decades, the US economy has been driven by rapid Credit Growth and Asset Price Inflation. Since the Crisis of 2008, in particular, aggressive fiscal stimulus, ultra-low
Gold: If Not Now, When?
Posted June 1, 2022
Inflation has shot up to 8.5%. There is a serious War in Europe. And the Fed has been creating Money hand over fist. And, still, the price of
Interview: Brutal Wealth Destruction
Posted May 27, 2022
Stocks and bonds have experienced a brutal selloff so far this year and the worst may still be ahead, with property prices likely to be
The End Of The Fed Put
Posted May 14, 2022
For a very long time now, every time the stock market has fallen significantly, the Fed has intervened, in one way or the other, to push it back
When Macro Watch Turned Bearish
Posted May 9, 2022
One of the recurring themes of Macro Watch is that “Liquidity Drives Asset Prices”. For instance, on March 6, 2021, Macro Watch published a video
Stocks, Property and The Economy May Crash This Year
Posted April 15, 2022
Last week, the US Yield Curve inverted, meaning that the Yield on 2-Year government bonds rose above the Yield on 10-Year government bonds. When the
FEAR THE FED
Posted March 13, 2022
Inflation is soaring. Now Russia’s war on Ukraine means that Inflation will remain high for much longer than would have been the case otherwise. Consequently, the