Death Spiral? Make That Plural
Posted February 13, 2016
Last week Citi made headlines by publishing a report claiming the global economy is trapped in a “Death Spiral”. The timing of the report was
Category Archives: Economics in the Age of Fiat Money
Negative Liquidity Will Drive Stocks Lower
Posted February 3, 2016
Liquidity in the United States turned negative in the fourth quarter of 2015. I believe this played an important role in the severe stock market
How My Career Shaped My Views On The Global Economy
Posted January 24, 2016
In the new Macro Watch video uploaded today, I describe how my 30-year career in the investment industry has shaped my views on what drives
Weak Credit Growth Signals Recession Ahead
Posted January 3, 2016
Between 1952 and 2008, every time US credit growth (adjusted for inflation) fell below 2%, the United States went into recession. During that period, the
Rate Hike: Trouble Ahead
Posted December 19, 2015
On December 16th, the Fed hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. The world did not come to an end, but
American Meltdown: The Crisis Of 2008
Posted December 6, 2015
In 2008 the American Financial System failed. In this video, uploaded today, we take a look back at the systemic meltdown of the US financial
Asia & The Slump In World Trade
Posted November 20, 2015
Asia is being hit hard by the slump in world trade that has resulted from the sharp economic slowdown in China. In the latest Macro
Interview: Yuan Devaluation Likely
Posted November 7, 2015
An Interview published in Hankook Ilbo I have just returned from speaking at The Third China Forum in Seoul, an event hosted by the Korean
China’s Next Move: Further Devaluation?
Posted October 30, 2015
The new Macro Watch video, uploaded today, addresses the following questions about China: Is China selling US government bonds? If so, what are the consequences?
The Dollar Standard: No Replacement In Sight
Posted October 16, 2015
There now seems to be a great deal of concern that the Dollar is about to lose its status as the main international reserve currency.
Weak Credit Growth Means Recession Ahead
Posted October 2, 2015
The first thing to understand about the global economy today is that CREDIT GRWOTH DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH. In the new Macro Watch video, uploaded today,
The Five Reasons The Fed Couldn’t (And Still Can’t) Hike Interest Rates
Posted September 20, 2015
There are five reasons the Fed couldn’t (and still can’t) hike interest rates. Here they are: The US Economy is too weak. Deflationary Pressures are
New CNBC Squawk Box Interview
Posted September 14, 2015
The two engines powering global economic growth, the United States and China, have broken down. As a result the global economy is losing altitude fast.
Liquidity & Asset Prices: Make Sure You Understand The Connection
Posted September 7, 2015
Suddenly, the investment world has woken up to the importance of LIQUIDITY and its role in driving asset prices. Over the past week, Liquidity has
Rapid Global Economic Deterioration
Posted September 4, 2015
In the latest Macro Watch video, we look at the interim results announcement of Standard Chartered PLC to see what they tell us about the
With Panic Spreading…. Watch Free Video
Posted August 26, 2015
Panic is spreading through the financial markets and the global economy is rapidly sliding back into severe recession. This worsening crisis won’t come as a
The Prospects For Asset Prices: A Very Dangerous Moment
Posted August 23, 2015
Last week the global economic slump caught up with Wall Street. Global stocks joined global commodities in a broad-based selloff that took the Dow Jones
A New Interview On The Collapsing Global Economy
Posted August 15, 2015
I recently spoke with Cris Sheridan, the Senior Editor of The Financial Sense Newshour. We discussed the reasons behind the global economy’s rapid slide back
Monetary & Fiscal Austerity Explain The New Global Recession
Posted August 12, 2015
In 2008, the global economic bubble came very close to collapsing into a new great depression. That didn’t happen because global policymakers responded to the
China’s Economic Crisis: Watch Free Video
Posted August 3, 2015
Sixteen months ago, I uploaded a Macro Watch video called “China’s Economic Crisis”. In 14 minutes and with 32 charts, it explained why China’s great