July 21, 2018
US-China Trade War: On The Brink
President Trump believes China poses a grave threat to the United States. His demands for trade concessions from China are designed to eliminate that threat.
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July 12, 2018
US-China Trade War Could Be A Turning Point In History
Last night I watched “Death By China” on YouTube. If you haven’t, you should. It’s free. This documentary was made by Peter Navarro, the Director
June 28, 2018
QE In Europe Is Ending – Beware
The ECB has announced that it plans to reduce its Quantitative Easing program from €30 billion per month now to €15 billion per month in
June 23, 2018
The Bank Of Japan Goes Ballistic
Ballistic is not a word normally associated with Monetary Policy. However, it is the ideal adjective to describe the conduct of Japanese Monetary Policy over
June 2, 2018
The BOJ’s Radical Experiment
Monetary Policy in Japan is RADICALLY AGGRESSIVE. Over the last five year, Japan’s Monetary Base has expanded by three and a half times. The Bank
May 17, 2018
What You Need To Know About The US Government’s Budget Deficits And Debt
The latest Macro Watch video provides a quick overview of everything you need to know about the US government’s budget and debt, including: The source
May 3, 2018
Less Savings, More Debt, Increasing Vulnerabilities
Total debt in the United States increased by $2.6 trillion last year. This year it will increase by roughly $2.9 trillion. For every debtor, there is
April 18, 2018
Weak Credit Growth Leaves The Economy Vulnerable
When credit growth is weak, the United States falls into recession. Between 1952 and 2008, there were only nine years when total credit (adjusted for inflation)
March 28, 2018
A 100 Year History Of Inflation Points To Trade War Calamity
Milton Friedman once famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”. It’s not. The history of Inflation in the United States over the
March 14, 2018
The Money Revolution
In order to understand how the economy and the financial markets really work today, it is necessary to understand Money. Not many people do. In
March 1, 2018
QT: The Pain Is Just Beginning
The Fed is running behind schedule. According to the Quantitative Tightening (QT) schedule it published last year, the Fed had intended to destroy $50 billion
February 12, 2018
The Government-Induced Liquidity Crisis Could Crush The Markets
The combination of tax cuts and increased government spending – on top of Quantitative Tightening – is set to drain $3 trillion out of the
January 31, 2018
Rate Hikes, Quantitative Tightening and Their Consequences
The previous Macro Watch video explained the evolution of US Monetary Policy over the last century by analyzing changes in the composition of the Fed’s
January 25, 2018
The Investors Podcast Interview – Highly Recommended
I recently spoke with Preston Psyh and Stig Brodersen for The Investors Podcast. The feedback from this interview has been fantastic. Preston and Stig ask excellent
January 14, 2018
The History Of US Monetary Policy – Highly Recommended
It is not possible to understand how the economy and the financial markets work in the 21st Century without understanding how the government conducts Monetary
December 29, 2017
Speech: Understanding Potential Threats To Trade and Economic Stability In Asia
In September, I spoke at the Global Trade Review Conference in Singapore. My topic was Understanding Potential Threats To Trade and Economic Stability In Asia.
December 14, 2017
Inflation Would Crush The Global Economy
The new Macro Watch video looks at the Credit to GDP ratio for each of the world’s twenty largest economies. We find that credit has
November 30, 2017
The Stock Market: Worry Now, Sell Later?
The S&P 500 Index is now 66% above its 2007 pre-crisis peak and 250% above the low it reached in 2009. The market’s cyclically adjusted
November 16, 2017
When Stocks Fall, Expect A Recession
As a rule, Credit Growth drives Economic Growth. But that is not the case now. Credit growth is very weak, but the economy grew by
November 2, 2017
Japan’s Extraordinary Experiment
The Bank of Japan is creating money and buying up Japanese Government Debt on an unprecedented scale. Thus far, the BOJ has bought up 40%
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