Watch Out: Something Is Going To Break!
Posted September 28, 2022
Last week, the Fed shocked investors when it released new projections showing that it now expects to increase interest rates significantly more than it had
Tag Archives: Federal Funds Rate
Credit Creation, Rate Hikes and Recession Risks
Posted July 31, 2022
After Dollars ceased to be backed by Gold five decades ago, Credit Growth exploded and became the main driver of Economic Growth. Capitalism evolved into Creditism.
Prepare For A Very Hard Landing
Posted June 29, 2022
For decades, the US economy has been driven by rapid Credit Growth and Asset Price Inflation. Since the Crisis of 2008, in particular, aggressive fiscal stimulus, ultra-low
Gold: If Not Now, When?
Posted June 1, 2022
Inflation has shot up to 8.5%. There is a serious War in Europe. And the Fed has been creating Money hand over fist. And, still, the price of
Interview: Brutal Wealth Destruction
Posted May 27, 2022
Stocks and bonds have experienced a brutal selloff so far this year and the worst may still be ahead, with property prices likely to be
The End Of The Fed Put
Posted May 14, 2022
For a very long time now, every time the stock market has fallen significantly, the Fed has intervened, in one way or the other, to push it back
When Macro Watch Turned Bearish
Posted May 9, 2022
One of the recurring themes of Macro Watch is that “Liquidity Drives Asset Prices”. For instance, on March 6, 2021, Macro Watch published a video
Stocks, Property and The Economy May Crash This Year
Posted April 15, 2022
Last week, the US Yield Curve inverted, meaning that the Yield on 2-Year government bonds rose above the Yield on 10-Year government bonds. When the
FEAR THE FED
Posted March 13, 2022
Inflation is soaring. Now Russia’s war on Ukraine means that Inflation will remain high for much longer than would have been the case otherwise. Consequently, the
Aggressive Fed Tightening May Sink Markets
Posted January 20, 2022
The Fed is accelerating its pace of Monetary Policy tightening much more aggressively than financial markets had anticipated. Over the last few months, we have learned that
The Fed Is More Profitable Than Apple
Posted August 20, 2021
The Fed is enormously profitable. In fact, if it were a corporation, the Fed would have been the most profitable corporation in the world last year. Luckily
Inflation Won’t Force The Fed To Tighten in 2021
Posted February 20, 2021
Monetary Policy in the United States is extraordinarily loose. The Federal Funds Rate is very close to 0% and the Fed is creating $120 billion a
Recession or Depression?
Posted March 15, 2020
The United States economy will almost certainly fall into Recession this year because of the Coronavirus. The outcome, however, could be very much worse than that.
The Fed Considers Buying A Wider Range Of Assets
Posted March 7, 2020
On March 1st, Macro Watch uploaded a video entitled “Thoughts On The Coronavirus”. That video warned Macro Watch subscribers to be prepared for the Fed
The Repo Crisis and The Fed: Part 4
Posted November 22, 2019
Quantitative Easing has resumed. On September 17th, overnight interest rates in the Repo Market shot up to 10%, four times higher than they should have
Expect More Rate Cuts
Posted September 29, 2019
Credit Growth in the United States has been the most important driver of economic growth for decades, so it is important to monitor it closely. If