Bears Beware: Rate Cuts Ahead
Posted November 27, 2023
The stock market and the bond market have both rallied sharply this month on the belief that interest rates have peaked and that the Fed
Posted November 27, 2023
The stock market and the bond market have both rallied sharply this month on the belief that interest rates have peaked and that the Fed
Posted August 15, 2023
This week Macro Watch examines the liabilities of five large central banks to explain how central banks create Money to pay for the assets they
Posted August 1, 2023
Global Liquidity is tightening. The new Macro Watch video demonstrates this by examining the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, The European Central Bank, The
Posted July 12, 2023
One of the main themes of Macro Watch is that Liquidity Determines The Direction Of Asset Prices. This week Macro Watch shows that Liquidity is contracting
Posted April 27, 2023
Home prices in the US are falling and it is very probable that they will continue to fall. The future direction of stock prices, however,
Posted March 27, 2023
Since the previous Macro Watch video on March 15th, the Systemic Banking Crisis of 2023 has spread and forced an abrupt adjustment to Monetary Policy.
Posted March 21, 2023
Last week, just before I left New York, I was interviewed by Andrew Keen for his Keen On podcast. Named as one of the “100 most connected
Posted March 16, 2023
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank set off a systemic banking sector crisis in the United States late last week. It is not yet certain
Posted March 10, 2023
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks before the Senate on March 7th were very hawkish and suggest the Fed will raise the Federal Funds Rate significantly
Posted February 18, 2023
I was recently interviewed by Addison Wiggin for his podcast The Wiggin Sessions. Addison is a financial writer, publisher, filmmaker and the author or co-author
Posted February 3, 2023
On February 1st, the Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate by 25-basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. During the press conference following
Posted January 24, 2023
Changes in the Combined Total Assets of the Fed, ECB and BOJ appear correlated with movements in the S&P 500 Index. Of course, correlation does not prove causation. But
Posted December 22, 2022
Earlier this week, I uploaded a presentation entitled “More Wealth Destruction Ahead: Part Two”. The video accompanying that presentation is now ready to watch. It explains
Posted December 2, 2022
The Fed is tightening Monetary Policy much faster and more aggressively now than during the previous tightening cycle that ran from January 2014 to August
Posted November 4, 2022
“This is one of my favorite interviews of the year so far. Richard @PaperMoneyEcon brings the 🔥 fire,” tweeted Trey Lockerbie, regarding our recent conversation for The
Posted October 22, 2022
Today I would like to share with you a very interesting discussion I had recently with Kevin Coldiron and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for the Top Traders
Posted July 31, 2022
After Dollars ceased to be backed by Gold five decades ago, Credit Growth exploded and became the main driver of Economic Growth. Capitalism evolved into Creditism.
Posted July 15, 2022
The Dollar is soaring and Commodity prices are crashing. This week’s Macro Watch video discusses why these trends are likely to continue and some of the economic
Posted June 18, 2022
The Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate by a larger than expected 75 basis point on Wednesday to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. Given that
Posted June 1, 2022
Inflation has shot up to 8.5%. There is a serious War in Europe. And the Fed has been creating Money hand over fist. And, still, the price of