March 11, 2016
Are The Central Banks Out Of Ammunition?
Yesterday, the European Central Bank expanded its QE program by one-third and cut bank deposit rates deeper into negative territory. How did the markets react?
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February 26, 2016
Negative Interest Rates: How Did This Happen?
Until recently, negative interest rates were considered inconceivable. Now, however, $7 trillion worth of bonds are trading at negative yields. That means the owners of
February 13, 2016
Death Spiral? Make That Plural
Last week Citi made headlines by publishing a report claiming the global economy is trapped in a “Death Spiral”. The timing of the report was
February 3, 2016
Negative Liquidity Will Drive Stocks Lower
Liquidity in the United States turned negative in the fourth quarter of 2015. I believe this played an important role in the severe stock market
January 24, 2016
How My Career Shaped My Views On The Global Economy
In the new Macro Watch video uploaded today, I describe how my 30-year career in the investment industry has shaped my views on what drives
January 3, 2016
Weak Credit Growth Signals Recession Ahead
Between 1952 and 2008, every time US credit growth (adjusted for inflation) fell below 2%, the United States went into recession. During that period, the
December 19, 2015
Rate Hike: Trouble Ahead
On December 16th, the Fed hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. The world did not come to an end, but
December 6, 2015
American Meltdown: The Crisis Of 2008
In 2008 the American Financial System failed. In this video, uploaded today, we take a look back at the systemic meltdown of the US financial
December 3, 2015
Interview: Austrian Economics Would Destroy The World
I could have used many different headlines to announce this interview (which was conducted by Cris Sheridan for the outstanding financial website, Financial Sense). I
November 20, 2015
Asia & The Slump In World Trade
Asia is being hit hard by the slump in world trade that has resulted from the sharp economic slowdown in China. In the latest Macro
November 7, 2015
Interview: Yuan Devaluation Likely
An Interview published in Hankook Ilbo I have just returned from speaking at The Third China Forum in Seoul, an event hosted by the Korean
October 30, 2015
China’s Next Move: Further Devaluation?
The new Macro Watch video, uploaded today, addresses the following questions about China: Is China selling US government bonds? If so, what are the consequences?
October 16, 2015
The Dollar Standard: No Replacement In Sight
There now seems to be a great deal of concern that the Dollar is about to lose its status as the main international reserve currency.
October 2, 2015
Weak Credit Growth Means Recession Ahead
The first thing to understand about the global economy today is that CREDIT GRWOTH DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH. In the new Macro Watch video, uploaded today,
September 20, 2015
The Five Reasons The Fed Couldn’t (And Still Can’t) Hike Interest Rates
There are five reasons the Fed couldn’t (and still can’t) hike interest rates. Here they are: The US Economy is too weak. Deflationary Pressures are
September 14, 2015
New CNBC Squawk Box Interview
The two engines powering global economic growth, the United States and China, have broken down. As a result the global economy is losing altitude fast.
September 7, 2015
Liquidity & Asset Prices: Make Sure You Understand The Connection
Suddenly, the investment world has woken up to the importance of LIQUIDITY and its role in driving asset prices. Over the past week, Liquidity has
September 4, 2015
Rapid Global Economic Deterioration
In the latest Macro Watch video, we look at the interim results announcement of Standard Chartered PLC to see what they tell us about the
August 26, 2015
With Panic Spreading…. Watch Free Video
Panic is spreading through the financial markets and the global economy is rapidly sliding back into severe recession. This worsening crisis won’t come as a
August 23, 2015
The Prospects For Asset Prices: A Very Dangerous Moment
Last week the global economic slump caught up with Wall Street. Global stocks joined global commodities in a broad-based selloff that took the Dow Jones
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