Bears Beware: Rate Cuts Ahead
Posted November 27, 2023
The stock market and the bond market have both rallied sharply this month on the belief that interest rates have peaked and that the Fed
Posted November 27, 2023
The stock market and the bond market have both rallied sharply this month on the belief that interest rates have peaked and that the Fed
Posted September 28, 2023
This week, Macro Watch looks at trends in Credit Growth and Wealth Creation; and explains why those trends suggest the US economy will soon fall
Posted August 15, 2023
This week Macro Watch examines the liabilities of five large central banks to explain how central banks create Money to pay for the assets they
Posted August 1, 2023
Global Liquidity is tightening. The new Macro Watch video demonstrates this by examining the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, The European Central Bank, The
Posted July 12, 2023
One of the main themes of Macro Watch is that Liquidity Determines The Direction Of Asset Prices. This week Macro Watch shows that Liquidity is contracting
Posted May 26, 2023
Fed Chairman Powell has said that the recent turmoil in the banking sector is likely to cause bank lending to slow; and that slower bank
Posted April 27, 2023
Home prices in the US are falling and it is very probable that they will continue to fall. The future direction of stock prices, however,
Posted April 14, 2023
Last year, Total Credit in the United States expanded by $5.1 trillion to $93.5 trillion. Total Credit first exceeded $1 trillion in 1964. Next year it will
Posted March 21, 2023
Last week, just before I left New York, I was interviewed by Andrew Keen for his Keen On podcast. Named as one of the “100 most connected
Posted March 16, 2023
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank set off a systemic banking sector crisis in the United States late last week. It is not yet certain
Posted March 10, 2023
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks before the Senate on March 7th were very hawkish and suggest the Fed will raise the Federal Funds Rate significantly
Posted February 3, 2023
On February 1st, the Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate by 25-basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. During the press conference following
Posted January 24, 2023
Changes in the Combined Total Assets of the Fed, ECB and BOJ appear correlated with movements in the S&P 500 Index. Of course, correlation does not prove causation. But
Posted December 22, 2022
Earlier this week, I uploaded a presentation entitled “More Wealth Destruction Ahead: Part Two”. The video accompanying that presentation is now ready to watch. It explains
Posted December 19, 2022
The previous Macro Watch video showed that the Fed is tightening Monetary Policy much more aggressively in the current tightening cycle than during the previous
Posted December 2, 2022
The Fed is tightening Monetary Policy much faster and more aggressively now than during the previous tightening cycle that ran from January 2014 to August
Posted November 15, 2022
Last year, if the Fed had been a corporation, it would have been the most profitable corporation in the world. It earned $108 billion. Apple earned
Posted September 28, 2022
Last week, the Fed shocked investors when it released new projections showing that it now expects to increase interest rates significantly more than it had
Posted July 31, 2022
After Dollars ceased to be backed by Gold five decades ago, Credit Growth exploded and became the main driver of Economic Growth. Capitalism evolved into Creditism.
Posted July 9, 2022
I recently joined Michael Gayed for a live conversation on his Lead-Lag Live Twitter Spaces. This was my first time speaking with Michael and my first