Lending Slowdown Suggests Rate Hike Pause
Posted May 26, 2023
Fed Chairman Powell has said that the recent turmoil in the banking sector is likely to cause bank lending to slow; and that slower bank
Tag Archives: recession
The Uncertain Outlook For Asset Prices
Posted April 27, 2023
Home prices in the US are falling and it is very probable that they will continue to fall. The future direction of stock prices, however,
Unchartered Territory
Posted April 14, 2023
Last year, Total Credit in the United States expanded by $5.1 trillion to $93.5 trillion. Total Credit first exceeded $1 trillion in 1964. Next year it will
Banking Crisis, Recession May Drive Stocks Higher
Posted March 27, 2023
Since the previous Macro Watch video on March 15th, the Systemic Banking Crisis of 2023 has spread and forced an abrupt adjustment to Monetary Policy.
Inflation Is Down, But The Fed’s Not Finished
Posted February 3, 2023
On February 1st, the Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate by 25-basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. During the press conference following
New Interview. Highly Recommended. Top Traders Unplugged.
Posted October 22, 2022
Today I would like to share with you a very interesting discussion I had recently with Kevin Coldiron and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for the Top Traders
Creditism In Crisis?
Posted October 16, 2022
Another set of very bad Inflation numbers was released on Thursday. The headline CPI index was up 8.2% from one year ago, little changed from the
Watch Out: Something Is Going To Break!
Posted September 28, 2022
Last week, the Fed shocked investors when it released new projections showing that it now expects to increase interest rates significantly more than it had
Prepare For A Very Hard Landing
Posted June 29, 2022
For decades, the US economy has been driven by rapid Credit Growth and Asset Price Inflation. Since the Crisis of 2008, in particular, aggressive fiscal stimulus, ultra-low
More Pain Ahead: Rates To Rise, Stocks To Fall
Posted June 18, 2022
The Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate by a larger than expected 75 basis point on Wednesday to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. Given that
Gold: If Not Now, When?
Posted June 1, 2022
Inflation has shot up to 8.5%. There is a serious War in Europe. And the Fed has been creating Money hand over fist. And, still, the price of
Interview: The Money Revolution
Posted May 20, 2022
Tom Bodrovics recently invited me to be his guest on Palisades Gold Radio to discuss my new book, The Money Revolution: How To Finance The
Stocks, Property and The Economy May Crash This Year
Posted April 15, 2022
Last week, the US Yield Curve inverted, meaning that the Yield on 2-Year government bonds rose above the Yield on 10-Year government bonds. When the
Wealth and Debt in 2021
Posted March 31, 2022
It is very important to monitor and forecast Credit Growth because in the 21st Century: Credit Growth Drives Economic Growth. If Credit grows by less
FEAR THE FED
Posted March 13, 2022
Inflation is soaring. Now Russia’s war on Ukraine means that Inflation will remain high for much longer than would have been the case otherwise. Consequently, the
Still Standing
Posted January 10, 2022
When the Covid pandemic began to crush the US economy in March 2020, Macro Watch published a series of videos on the subject, including one
Credit: A Year Like No Other
Posted January 2, 2021
The latest Macro Watch video looks at some of the extraordinary developments in US credit and wealth during the first three quarters of 2020. It
Recession or Depression?
Posted March 15, 2020
The United States economy will almost certainly fall into Recession this year because of the Coronavirus. The outcome, however, could be very much worse than that.
Thoughts On The Coronavirus
Posted March 1, 2020
In the Macro Watch video uploaded today, I share my thoughts on the Coronavirus. How long it is likely to last. How it has impacted
Credit Growth, Asset Prices and The Fed
Posted March 28, 2019
Between 1980 and 2008, Credit Growth drove Economic Growth. The ratio of Total Credit to GDP soared from 170% in 1980 to 370% in 2008. Since 2008,