“A Period Of Transition” Into A Great Depression?
Posted March 11, 2025
A Transition Period—Or The Beginning of a New Great Depression? The global economy is on the edge. Over the past few weeks, market tremors have
Tag Archives: recession
America’s Wealth Miracle Is On Shaky Ground
Posted December 26, 2024
The United States is experiencing an extraordinary surge in wealth. During the third quarter of 2024 alone, U.S. household wealth increased by $4.8 trillion, bringing
Highly Recommended New Interview. Listen now.
Posted October 28, 2024
I was recently interviewed by Hunter Thompson for the Cash Flow Connections podcast. This was a particularly good interview. I hope you will listen to it
Economic Imbalances: A Warning for Investors
Posted October 24, 2024
New Macro Watch Video Released for Q4 2024 In the latest Macro Watch video, we dive into the growing imbalances in the U.S. economy. On
Do You Know How The Fed Cuts Interest Rates?
Posted September 24, 2024
You will have heard that the Fed reduced the Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis points last week. But do you know HOW the Fed
Why The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates Next Week
Posted September 12, 2024
On August 23rd, during his speech at Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Powell said: “Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the
Slowing Income Suggests Economic Weakness Ahead
Posted May 15, 2024
A slowdown in the growth of Disposable Personal Income is pointing to economic weakness ahead. Disposable Personal Income growth is slowing and is likely to
Weak Credit Growth May Force The Fed To Cut Rates
Posted April 26, 2024
Total Credit in the United States first exceeded $1 trillion in 1964. This quarter it will blow past $100 trillion. This 100-fold increase in Credit
The Investor’s Podcast Interview 2024: Highly Recommended
Posted March 16, 2024
I recently joined Clay Finck on the We Study Billionaires Podcast on The Investor’s Podcast Network. If you only listen to one of my interviews
Recession in 2024?
Posted December 29, 2023
Will the United States fall into Recession in 2024? Trends in Credit Growth suggest it will. It is important to monitor and forecast trends in
Credit Trends Suggest A Recession Ahead
Posted September 28, 2023
This week, Macro Watch looks at trends in Credit Growth and Wealth Creation; and explains why those trends suggest the US economy will soon fall
Higher For Longer Interest Rates May Rattle Markets
Posted June 29, 2023
This week Macro Watch examines the most recent trends in Credit Growth. It focuses on two important developments revealed in The Financial Accounts Of The
Lending Slowdown Suggests Rate Hike Pause
Posted May 26, 2023
Fed Chairman Powell has said that the recent turmoil in the banking sector is likely to cause bank lending to slow; and that slower bank
The Uncertain Outlook For Asset Prices
Posted April 27, 2023
Home prices in the US are falling and it is very probable that they will continue to fall. The future direction of stock prices, however,
Unchartered Territory
Posted April 14, 2023
Last year, Total Credit in the United States expanded by $5.1 trillion to $93.5 trillion. Total Credit first exceeded $1 trillion in 1964. Next year it will
Banking Crisis, Recession May Drive Stocks Higher
Posted March 27, 2023
Since the previous Macro Watch video on March 15th, the Systemic Banking Crisis of 2023 has spread and forced an abrupt adjustment to Monetary Policy.
Inflation Is Down, But The Fed’s Not Finished
Posted February 3, 2023
On February 1st, the Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate by 25-basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. During the press conference following
New Interview. Highly Recommended. Top Traders Unplugged.
Posted October 22, 2022
Today I would like to share with you a very interesting discussion I had recently with Kevin Coldiron and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for the Top Traders
Creditism In Crisis?
Posted October 16, 2022
Another set of very bad Inflation numbers was released on Thursday. The headline CPI index was up 8.2% from one year ago, little changed from the
Watch Out: Something Is Going To Break!
Posted September 28, 2022
Last week, the Fed shocked investors when it released new projections showing that it now expects to increase interest rates significantly more than it had