Recession in 2024?
Posted December 29, 2023
Will the United States fall into Recession in 2024? Trends in Credit Growth suggest it will. It is important to monitor and forecast trends in
Tag Archives: Monetary Policy
Bears Beware: Rate Cuts Ahead
Posted November 27, 2023
The stock market and the bond market have both rallied sharply this month on the belief that interest rates have peaked and that the Fed
Credit Trends Suggest A Recession Ahead
Posted September 28, 2023
This week, Macro Watch looks at trends in Credit Growth and Wealth Creation; and explains why those trends suggest the US economy will soon fall
Investors Should Beware Money Destruction
Posted August 15, 2023
This week Macro Watch examines the liabilities of five large central banks to explain how central banks create Money to pay for the assets they
Great New Books Network Podcast Interview
Posted August 7, 2023
The New Books Network recently invited me to be a guest on their podcast to discuss my latest book, The Money Revolution. This turned into a
Global Liquidity Is Tightening: Expect Trouble
Posted August 1, 2023
Global Liquidity is tightening. The new Macro Watch video demonstrates this by examining the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, The European Central Bank, The
Liquidity’s Tightening. Watch Out!
Posted July 12, 2023
One of the main themes of Macro Watch is that Liquidity Determines The Direction Of Asset Prices. This week Macro Watch shows that Liquidity is contracting
Do Fed, ECB & BOJ Assets Drive The S&P 500?
Posted January 24, 2023
Changes in the Combined Total Assets of the Fed, ECB and BOJ appear correlated with movements in the S&P 500 Index. Of course, correlation does not prove causation. But
Bank Of Japan Doubles Bond Yield Cap
Posted January 6, 2023
The Bank Of Japan surprised the markets on December 20th by doubling its cap on the yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) from 25-basis
Video Ready plus BOJ Primer
Posted December 22, 2022
Earlier this week, I uploaded a presentation entitled “More Wealth Destruction Ahead: Part Two”. The video accompanying that presentation is now ready to watch. It explains
More Wealth Destruction Ahead: Part Two
Posted December 19, 2022
The previous Macro Watch video showed that the Fed is tightening Monetary Policy much more aggressively in the current tightening cycle than during the previous
More Wealth Destruction Ahead, Part One
Posted December 2, 2022
The Fed is tightening Monetary Policy much faster and more aggressively now than during the previous tightening cycle that ran from January 2014 to August
The Fed May Lose $50 Billion in 2023
Posted November 15, 2022
Last year, if the Fed had been a corporation, it would have been the most profitable corporation in the world. It earned $108 billion. Apple earned
Watch Out: Something Is Going To Break!
Posted September 28, 2022
Last week, the Fed shocked investors when it released new projections showing that it now expects to increase interest rates significantly more than it had
2008 vs. 2020 Part Three: Monetary Stimulus
Posted September 21, 2022
The US Monetary Base surged nearly twice as much following the Crisis of 2008 as it did following the economic crisis caused by the Covid
2008 vs. 2020: Crisis, Response, Recovery
Posted August 26, 2022
The new Macro Watch video compares the US government’s policy response to the two great economic calamities of our time: the Crisis of 2008 and the economic crisis
Dollar Soars, Commodities Crash
Posted July 15, 2022
The Dollar is soaring and Commodity prices are crashing. This week’s Macro Watch video discusses why these trends are likely to continue and some of the economic
Prepare For A Very Hard Landing
Posted June 29, 2022
For decades, the US economy has been driven by rapid Credit Growth and Asset Price Inflation. Since the Crisis of 2008, in particular, aggressive fiscal stimulus, ultra-low
More Pain Ahead: Rates To Rise, Stocks To Fall
Posted June 18, 2022
The Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate by a larger than expected 75 basis point on Wednesday to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. Given that
Interview: The Money Revolution
Posted May 20, 2022
Tom Bodrovics recently invited me to be his guest on Palisades Gold Radio to discuss my new book, The Money Revolution: How To Finance The